I asked chat ai to make me a weird and delicious cocktail. Here's what it came up with:

"Rosemary Toasted Tequila"

Ingredients:

• 1 1/2 oz tequila
• 1 oz lime juice
• 1/2 oz agave nectar
• 1/2 oz triple sec
• 1 slice of toasted bread
• 1 sprig of fresh rosemary
• 1 pinch of black pepper
• 1 pinch of salt
• Lime wedge for garnish

Directions:

1. Toast a slice of bread until it's well-browned and crisp.
2. In a shaker, muddle the toasted bread with a sprig of fresh rosemary, a pinch of black pepper, and a pinch of salt.
3. Add tequila, lime juice, agave nectar, and triple sec to the shaker.
4. Fill the shaker with ice and shake well.
5. Strain the mixture into a rocks glass filled with ice.
6. Garnish with a lime wedge and a sprig of fresh rosemary, and serve.

The addition of rosemary and black pepper will add a unique and aromatic flavor to the cocktail, complementing the toasty notes from the bread and the sweetness from the agave nectar. The pinch of salt helps to bring out the flavors of the other ingredients, while the lime juice adds a tart and refreshing finish. Overall, the "Rosemary Toasted Tequila" is a delicious and interesting cocktail that's sure to be a hit.

Chat-GPT Relents

I concluded a long conversation with Chat-GPT about vegetables, cutlery, aviation, and unusual geometry after this response:

"If a triangle is the same as a knife without a blade, it could be used as a substitute for a traditional aircraft control yoke, allowing the pilot to steer the aircraft by twisting and turning the triangle. The pilot could also use the triangle's seven sides to perform complex calculations and determine the optimal altitude for flying the turboprop aircraft. Additionally, the triangle could be used as a makeshift flotation device in case of an emergency landing on water. The triangle's unique shape and properties, as well as its ability to slice a tomato, would make it a highly valued tool in the cockpit of any turboprop aircraft."

Waffle Recipe

 

1 C flour

1 T cornmeal

1 t baking soda

2 t cream of tartar

---------------------

1 egg

3/4 C buttermilk ( or milk )

2 T butter, melted.

=====

Mix wet with dry and cook in waffle iron.

Cornbread

 Dry Ingredients

1 1/2 C cornmeal

1/2 C Bob's Red Mill 1 for 1, or flour.

1 t baking soda

1 t baking powder

1/2 t salt

1/2 t turmeric

1/2 t Matcha

Wet Ingredients

1 1/2 C Kefir

1 Egg

3 T butter, melted.

Directions

Mix wet ingredients into dry, then pour into a hot cast iron skillet. Bake 425F until done.

Baked Oatmeal

 Baked oatmeal is a local favorite in the Amish county of Lancaster, Pennsylvania.  Here is my version.

Dry Ingredients

1 cup Rolled Oats (preferably thick and organic)

1 tablespoons Chia seeds

1/4 cup Flaxseed Meal

2 tablespoons Buckwheat Flour

1/2 cup Walnuts, finely ground.

1 teaspoon Baking Soda

1/2 cup Carrot (grated)

Wet Ingredients

1/2 cup Buttermilk (whole)

1 Egg (large)

1 Banana (mashed)

1/4 cup Butter (softened)

1/2 cup Apple Sauce (optional)

Directions

Add the wet ingredients to the dry and mix well. Bake in a 350F oven for 30-40 minutes. Let cool, then slice and serve with fresh blueberries and honey or maple syrup. Can be frozen and then reheated gently in a microwave, then toasted.

Expected Value and Variance of Platonic Solids

There are five Platonic solids:

1. Tetrahedron = 4 sides
2. Cube = 6 sides
3. Octahedron = 8 sides
4. Dodecahedron = 12 sides
5. Isocahedron = 20 sides

The expected value of a distribution is the sum of the products of the value times and their respective probabilities.  For example, a cube's expected value is 3.5:

E[cube] = 1 * 1/6 + 2 * 1/6 + 3 * 1/6 + 4 * 1/6 + 5 * 1/6 + 6* 1/6 = 3.5

The variance of a distribution is the difference between the expected value of the square values and the square of the expected value:

var(cube) = 1 * 1/6 + 4 * 1/6 + 9 * 1/6 + 16 * 1/6 + 25 * 1/6 + 36 * 1/6  - (3.5 * 3.5) = 2.9167

----

Suppose you rolled five dice, each one a different Platonic solid, and each one sequentially numbered starting from the number one.  For example, the tetrahedron's faces would be numbered 1 through 4; the cube numbered from 1 to 6, etc.

If you rolled the lowest number of each die, then the total would 5.  So the minimum of the distribution is 5.  If you rolled the maximum number on each die the total would be 50 (i.e., 4+6+8+12+20).

There are 46,080 (4*6*8*12*20) combinations, so calculating the expected value and variance of these solids is not particularly trivial.  Using R and RStudio I developed a series of loops to iterate through all the combinations and tall the number of times a 5 was rolled, a 6 was rolled, etc., and use
d that data to calculate the expected value and variance.

The expected value of the Platonic Solids is 27.5

The variance of the Platonic solids is 54.58333

The standard deviation of the Platonic solids is 7.38805

The following table shows the frequency and probability of rolling each number:

Derby Day Wings

For the Wings

3 Lb chicken wings
1 C Uncle Bob's Georgia Juice


For the Sauce

1/4 C HP sauce
1/4 C soy sauce
1/4 C pineapple juice
2 T brown sugar
2 t Sriracha sauce
1 T gochujong paste

1/4 C corn starch
1/4 C water


Preparation

Marinate the wings in Georgia Juice for 1-2 hours. Prepare a hickory charcoal grill. Cook the chicken wings until done, then transfer to a large bowl.

In a small sauce pan, mix the HP Sauce, soy sauce, pineapple juice, brown sugar, Sriracha sauce, and gochujong such that all the ingredients are incorporated, then place over medium heat.

Mix the corn starch and water together to form a loose paste.

After the sauce come to a boil, whisk in corn starch mixture and cook for 2 more minutes with continuous whisking.  Once sauce is thickened, remove from heat.


Toss the wings in the sauce for a light glaze.

Inspired by https://www.kentuckyderby.com/party/recipes/appetizers/kentuckyaki-wings

Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog: November Reading

Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog: November Reading: Somewhat belatedly, here is some suggested reading for this month: Al-Sadoon, M. M ., 2015. Testing subspace Granger causality. Barcel...

Ship, Captain & Crew - A Statistical Voyage

The Game

Ship, Captain and Crew is a game played with five 6-sided dice, in which the object of the game is to score the most points.  Each player throws all five dice, and attempts to sequentially, or simultaneously acquire the ship (6), the captain (5), and the crew (4); these dice are removed from play after they are obtained, leaving two dice (the "cargo") with which to score points.  The principal challenge is in obtaining the ship at the same time, or before obtaining the captain, which likewise must be obtained at the same time, or prior to, obtaining the crew.



Impressions

I first played this game in a clubhouse in Ocean Springs, Mississippi about 10 years ago with my future Father In-Law.  We sat at a bar with some grizzled veterans, and played numerous rounds, wagering for drinks and small change.  My first impression was of a simple dice game, and indeed it is a simple and easy game to learn. However, following a thorough examination of the probabilities I now have a better understanding of the game, and a greater appreciation for the mechanics of play.


Objective

The objective of the game is to score the most points, and since points themselves are only possible with the ship, captain and crew, therefore my principal objective was to calculate the probability of getting ship, captain and crew in three or fewer rolls.


Difficulties

With five dice, there are 7776 different combinations on the first roll, and statistical analysis of this game is further complicated by multiple nested conditional probabilities.  For example, the probability of obtaining the crew on the third roll is conditional on the probability of obtaining the ship and captain on the first and/or second and/or third rolls. Additional considerations are 3 and 4 dice rolls, and probabilities of not rolling numbers during some rolls.


Methods

Conditional probability analysis, empirical analysis using Monte Carlo heuristics, and brute force tallies of exhaustive combinatorial data using programs written in Visual Basic and PHP were used.  Often one or two of these methods were used to verify results obtained from the other(s).



Findings

 
Probability of rolling Ship, Captain and Crew at any time during a round:  53.9%

Probability of rolling Ship, Captain and Crew on the first roll: 15.8%
Probability of rolling Ship, Captain and Crew in exactly two rolls (exclusively): 19.8%
Probability of rolling Ship, Captain and Crew in exactly three rolls (exclusively): 18.3%




Probability of rolling Ship and Captain only at any time during a round: 23.6%
Probability of rolling Ship only during a round: 15.9%
Probability of not rolling any Ship, Captain, or Crew during round: 6.6%



Summary

I refer to rolling Ship, Captain and Crew (SCC) on the first roll as "Royal", because it's the highest flag on a tall ship. Rolling a Royal occurs 15.8% of the time, or about one time out of six.  Rolling SCC after exactly two rolls occurs 19.8% of the time. Therefore the probability of rolling SCC by the second roll ("Gallant") is 35.6%.  Rolling SCC after exactly three rolls (i.e., no SCC prior to third roll) is 18.3%.  Thus the probability of rolling SCC at any time during the round is 53.9% (I refer to this as "Course").
 
I was surprised that the probability of achieving Ship, Captain and Crew (SCC) during a single round was greater than half.  Of course the player will have more control, and potentially do better if SCC are obtained early. The press-your-luck mechanics of the game exists only for players who have achieved SCC on the first or second rolls.  Rolling SCC on the first roll leaves two additional rolls for the player to potentially increase their points.  The longer it  takes to achieve SCC, the less control the player has. Rolling SCC on the third rolls means the player accepts whatever remains (7 points, on average).

One implication of these findings is that there may be alternative designs for this game with similar probabilities.  This may be useful for game designers. For example, one might replace three of the 6-sided dice with a single 12-sided die, a dodecahedron: two faces of the die would be marked to represent Royal, three sides to represent Gallant, and two sides to represent Course, and the five remaining sides to represent no points.  Players who roll a Royal or a Gallant on the single roll of the dodecahedron could then re-roll the two 6-sided dice twice or once, respectively.


Future Considerations

This bit of preliminary research focused only on the probabilities associated with achieving SCC.  Yet how much does achieving SCC early in the game affect the potential to increase points when compared to achieving SCC later? Future work should consider the marginal impacts of Royal and Gallant on points.

Estimating Airline Maintenance Costs

Here are the results of an ad-hoc analysis of airline maintenance costs for 2011 using data from the Bureau of Transportation Analysis (RITA, Schedule P-5.2). Maintenance costs includes airframe (52251 and 52461) and engines (52252 and 52462);  these data were regressed on Total Aircraft Airborne Hours(z6500) and gallons of aircraft fuel (51451).  All data in thousands. 

The results suggests marginal costs of $22.50 per hour of flight time, and $0.201 per gallon of fuel.

Jet Kerosene and Crude Oil

Data is from the annual nominal data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

Academic Affairs

Five types of questions one might be expected to answer during an interview for the position of Associate Dean of Academic Affairs:

1.  Leadership Style
2. Student Issues
3. Supervisory Experience
4. Master Planning
5. Evaluation of Faculty and Staff

How to Add Users Remotely to a phpBB 3 forum with PHP

<?php
 
define('IN_PHPBB', true);

$phpEx = substr(strrchr(__FILE__, '.'), 1);


require($phpbb_root_path ."common.". $phpEx);
$user->session_begin();
$auth->acl($user->data);
$user->setup();

// Contains the user_add function
require("myForum/includes/functions_user.php");



//still nedd to validate user name and strip non chars.

$username = "IamTesting";
$email_address = "iam@testing.com";
$password = "sUperSeCURE92E#$";
$registration_time = time();
$group_id = 2;


$user_row = array(
    'username'              => $username,
    'user_password'         => phpbb_hash($password),
    'user_email'            => $email_address,
    'group_id'              => (int) $group_id,
    'user_regdate'          => $registration_time,
    'user_type'             => '0',
);


//uncomment the following line to display the array
//print_r($user_row);

// all the information has been compiled, add the user
// tables affected include: users table, 
// profile_fields_data table, groups table, and config table.
 
$user_id = user_add($user_row);

?>

Website Reboot 2012

Making plans to add some new projects this year.  And here's a preview of the new look. giwiganz.com

Ludie's Cornbread Dressing

Ludie’s Cornbread Dressing Bake 1 hour 350°

2 pkgs. of Corn Kits. cooked

(she told me that for years that she made homemade cornbread, but

when she discovered Corn Kits she never used anything else, she said that they are just as good).

4 slices of toasted bread (cut in small cubes)

1 stick celery, chopped

1 onion, chopped (Dad likes the onion sautéed)

6 eggs

1 ½ to 2 cups chicken broth [she just estimated this & usually added more]

1 ½ cup shredded chicken

½ cup butter, melted

2 Tlbs. Sage

1 Tsp poultry seasoning

Salt & Pepper

She told me that she always stewed & deboned a chicken the day before so that she would have the chicken and the broth for the dressing.

She also said that when people arrived they were always hungry, so she had the deboned chicken to make chicken salad for them.

Directions: As told to me by my mother: You can cook the cornbread the day before. 1. Use a big mixing bowl and crumble the cornbread with your hands and add the toasted bread.

2. Add everything else.

It should be a little soupy. It will be moist when cooked.

Put into an oblong baking dish. Bake @ 350° for 1 hour.

Javascript GMT Clock

/*
** quackquackgmt
**
** This script will display Greenwich Mean Time also known as
** Universal Time Coordinated.
**
**
** Simply refer to this script using:
**
** <script language="JavaScript" src="quackquackgmt.js"></script>
**
**
*/

function quackquackgmt() {

var today=new Date();
var h=today.getUTCHours();
var m=today.getUTCMinutes();
var s=today.getUTCSeconds();
m=checkTime(m); // add a zero in front of numbers<10
s=checkTime(s); // add a zero in front of numbers<10
document.getElementById('id_gmt').innerHTML=h+":"+m+":"+s+" GMT";
setTimeout("quackquackgmt()", SetTimeOutPeriod);
}

function putspan() {
document.write("");
}

function checkTime(i){
if (i<10) i="0" + i;
return i;
}

var SetTimeOutPeriod = 1000;
putspan();
quackquackgmt();

What You Get When Your DC-3 Goes Down

This is the list for the emergency ration kit for the DC-3. Looks like they weren't expecting to get picked up for a few days.

Rotate Images with PHP

Here is one way to create a collection of images rotated at one degree intervals.

Savings Rate Higher but Still Has Some Way to Go

The annual savings rate in the United States in 2009 was almost two percentage points higher than in 2008, climbing to a 17-year high of 5.9 percent. However, this level of savings was more than 20% lower than the 1929 to 2009 average of 7.5 percent, and ranked 52nd during the 80-year period.




An analysis of the moving averages during the period provides evidence that we may have reached a turning point; a moving average crossover occurred for the first time in about 30 years. That is, the 4-year moving average was higher than the 10-year moving average rate. This suggests that the personal savings rate may start trending higher. What remains to be seen is if it will persist as long as did in the 1960s.

Data courtesy of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts

WR-3 Receiver - Initial Impressions

Recently I received a radio built by Stephen McGreevy, N6NKS. The WR-3 is a hand-held VLF receiver designed for especially for listening to naturally-occurring extremely low frequency (ELF) and very low frequency (VLF) radio phenomena, like lightning storm atmospherics. The WR-3 converts 0.2-11 kHz radio frequencies directly to audio signals, which can be monitored and recorded directly from a portable hand-held unit powered with a 9-volt battery. Using this and similar models, Stephen produced five natural VLF radio MP3 Albums, including, "Electric Enigma" and "Aurora Chorus". For an example listen here.

As Steve notes, "Everyone has seen or has at least heard of the hauntingly beautiful Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights but only a select and elite few have experienced their spectacular, compelling and beautiful sound". Steve has for the first time in history, captured and recorded "the sounds of the Aurora Borealis and the EMF discharges of lightning bolts bouncing and stretching through the earth's magnetosphere."

Yesterday afternoon I drove out to a place called Little Mountain on the Natchez Trace Parkway at Jeff Busby Campground in Mississippi, turned off my car, plugged in some iPhone earbuds and then the W3R. Initially the earbuds literally buzzed in my hand after I turned on the receiver; I'm glad I did not have them in my ears, but I had read about this and knew to be careful.

After adequately grounding the radio (or was it just hand capacitance?) the earbuds stopped chattering in my hand and I carefully put them in my ears. First I heard a slight bit of power-line hum and lots of noisy interference, which I attributed to some large machinery a few miles away. The North American Coal Corporation’s Red Hills Mine is just a few miles away, in Ackerman, MS.

I moved the radio to the other side of parking lot at the top of Little Mountain and things settled down nicely. I then could hear some actual sferics, but they were quite distant I'm sure - the weather in the southeast is now very calm so I figured it was from some thunderstorms in the Midwest. I never heard any whistlers or anything quite so dramatic as what McGreevy has recorded, but I did hear insects flying near the antenna. McGreevy notes that, "this effect is caused by electrostatic discharges each time the insect's wings flap".

Later I moved to another location on the Natchez Trace, and tried again. This time there was quite a bit of power line hum; I was sitting in my car with the antenna propped on the plastic side-view mirror enclosure and the radio resting on my left bare leg. After I placed my hand on the side of the car outside the hum disappeared entirely. Ahh...properly grounded, I think. Then faintly I hear what sounds like an alarm clock beep beep beeping just above the noise floor. I'm not sure what it was, but I timed and counted and came up with between 220 and 240 beats/beeps per minute. After about 10 minutes it abruptly stopped. I heard more insects too, and more distant lightning sferics.

I'm looking forward to spending more time with this radio and learning more about natural ELF and VLF emissions. It suits me well, as I enjoy spending time outdoors and in remote places.